Smallholder production and climate risk. The Lower Amazon region, Brazil

      Аннотация: Climate models consistently predict higher incidence of extreme weather events in the Amazon region as well as a warmer and drier climate. Past Amazon droughts demonstrated the vulnerability of both forests and people to such local impacts of global climate change. This book analyses and classifies representative producer’s types relevant for risk analysis and assesses the perception of climatic and non-climatic risks affecting local producers output and wellbeing. It demonstrates that relative resource abundance in Amazonian producer settings is no guarantee for resilience against future climate shocks and that current climate related risks are not perceived as the most relevant. Climate change scenarios, however, significantly increase the share of climate shocks, especially for certain producer’s types. The lack of appropriate risk-sharing institutions and safety nets are therefore likely to become a more important policy issue in the decades to come. This producer risk analysis appears as a precondition for targeted adaptation efforts for decision makers, as well as international cooperation and professionals in the Environmental and Social Science fields.

Ключевые слова: risk analysis, climate change, Amazon, vulnerability