Empirical Analysis of Sector Rotation. Evidence from the European Market

      Аннотация: Recently, the European financial market has encountered a deep period of crisis. A great number of people saw their investment turned in big losses. Despite this long crisis that Europe is facing, some people have found a solution in order to gain profits from this negative period. This book tries to deepen understanding of a widespread problem: why some investors are able to gain profits despite profound financial crises and why some others find themselves overwhelmed by the strength of the crises? The book shows that an investor performing a sector rotation analysis is able to obtain greater returns than an investor investing his entire portfolio on the benchmark index S&P Europe 350. A sector rotation analysis may be performed considering different rotation indicators. This book considers three types of rotation variables that make the sector rotation analysis more profitable than a “buy and hold” one. The three indicators taken into account in this book are the monetary shifts, the Halloween effect and the business cycle phases. The sample period for the analysis goes from 1988 to 2011. The results obtained from the sector rotation analysis show how this strategy is advisable for investors who want to optimize their returns.

Ключевые слова: Sector Rotation, Buy and Hold, S&P Europe 350, Halloween Effect, Business cycles