Quantitative Risk Assessment for Maritime Safety Management.

      Аннотация: Shipping plays an important role in the world’s economic development and has always been characterized as a relatively risky business. With an increasing awareness of environmental protection and safety issues, research into maritime risk assessment has become a major factor for marine companies when making their operating decisions, and is therefore an important research domain. It is found that the traditional and simplest way to estimate the probability of maritime accidents is to consider accident statistics or expert estimation. However, both of these methods have certain limitations. This book is based on the safety performance of global vessels and has found various risk indicators that can be used to indicate the probability of an accident. An innovative approach toward integrating logistic regression and a Bayesian Network together into risk assessment was presented. This approach has been developed and applied to a case study in the maritime industry. It can apply to other industries as well. Finally, a case study applying this risk assessment approach in the port state control program is presented.

Ключевые слова: Bayesian networks, Binary Regression, Maritime Safety Management, Quantitative Input, risk assessment, Inspection Game