Quantifying political risks in infrastructure projects. Quantifying qualitative information on risks (QQIR) in structured finance transactions

      Аннотация: How to quantify risks in the absence of historical data or time series? This book develops a methodology to quantify expert opinion on risk factors which have significant impact on cash flow projections in life-cycle infrastructure projects. It applies fuzzy set theory, stochastic simulation, and robust statistics to formalize the "QQIR-Method", which bridges the gap between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods. The QQIR-Method is then applied to political risks in infrastructure projects in Asia. The book contains a number of case studies and survey interviews with tier-1 market participants. It also provides an easy to use practical guide to apply and replicate the QQIR-Method in ones own professional field.

Ключевые слова: Risk Management, Risk Assessment, fuzzy sets, political risks, risk quantification, cash flow modeling, methodology development, cash flow projection, Infrastructure Projects