Currency impact of the Polish zloty on the bond markets 2001-2011. An empiric analysis from the perspective of foreign exchange and bond managers

      Аннотация: Purpose of this work is to provide an insight in one of the most vital and actively developing bond markets of Eastern and Central Europe. During the last decade the Polish economy achieved a stable growth which was considered to be immune to the severe effects of financial crisis. We focus our attention on the Polish bond market from the point of view of a euro bond manager in an attempt to react to some major issues – is there a relation between the PLN/EUR exchange rate and the prices of Polish government notes; is there a dependency between the Polish and the common European bond market. Our goal is to provide a reliable solution for those questions in order to facilitate investment decisions and secure better predictability of market development. Applied methods include descriptive statistics, roll down and linear regression analysis. Basis for them is monthly statistical data for 10-years period from 2001 to 2011 gratefully obtained from Bloomberg database. In order to provide a comprehensive view on the topic, analysis is conducted for the entire space of time and for the first and the second 5 years. In conclusion, mathematical relations, which can be applied by market prediction or performance measurement, are presented and evaluated for their statistical significance.

Ключевые слова: market, impact, Bond, Foreign, monetary, currency, zloty, exchange, empyric, serafimov