Use of Statistical Modelling of Malaria outcome in Ethiopia. In Amhara, Oromiya and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region of Ethiopia

      Аннотация: The transmission of malaria is the leading public health problem in Ethiopia. From the total area of Ethiopia, more than 75% is malarious. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify socio-economic, geographic and demographic risk factors of malaria based on the rapid diagnosis test (RDT) survey results. To achieve this objective, different statistical methods were developed. These Statistical methods are Surveylogistic, Generalized Linear Mixed models (GLMM), Spatial Statistics, Joint models, Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) and the Rasch model. The result from these analyses identified that poor socio-economic conditions are the main causes for malaria problem. Therefore, improving the housing condition of the household is one of the means of reducing the risk of malaria. Moreover, with other control measures, including creating awareness about the use of mosquito nets and indoor residual spraying (IRS), the number of malaria cases can be reduced. In general, these models will significantly contribute in monitoring and control, and eventual possible malaria eradication efforts in Africa.

Ключевые слова: GLM, Biostatistics, Variogram, GLMM, GAMM, surveylogistic, rash model