Alternative econometric models for the analysis of UK tourism demand.

      Аннотация: In the context of the UK tourism demand for France, Spain and Portugal in 1969-1997, the objective of this book is to demonstrate that consistent estimates and reliable forecasts can be obtained from empirical models based on the principles of economic theory, and specified and rigorously tested within the rules of sound econometric methodology. The alternative models estimated include error-correction autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL), static and dynamic almost ideal demand systems (AIDS) and cointegrated vector autoregressive models (VAR). The main findings that emerge from this study are the following. The diagnostic tests applied to the dynamic ARDL models provide sufficient evidence to classify them as statistically robust, structurally stable and well-defined specifications. The evidence obtained for the AIDS and VAR systems indicates them as data-coherent and theoretically-consistent models, complying with the utility maximisation hypotheses. The similarity of the estimates of the long-run structural parameters across models and their forecasting accuracy, further support the reliability of these models for explaining and predicting UK tourism demand behaviour.

Ключевые слова: tourism demand, dynamic VAR and Error Correction models, Almost Ideal Demand Systems, cointegration, Forecasting