Oceans, global warming hiatus and regional climate variability. Global and regional climate change, atmospheric and marine variability in the Black Sea region

      Аннотация: The results concerning large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic and Pacific Ocean and its impact on global and regional climate variability are generalized. It is shown, that Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is crucial natural climatic signal for the Atlantic-European and Black Sea regions. It is characterized by amplitude which is the same order as human-induced centennial climate change and exceeds anthropogenic change at the decadal scale. The fast increasing of global and Northern Hemisphere air temperature in the last 30 yrs of XX century is due to coincidence of human-induced positive trend and transition from negative to positive phase of AMO. Recent global warming hiatus is the result of switch off of the AMO phase. Typical AMO temporal scale is dictated by meridional overturning variability in the North Atlantic and associated rate of thermohaline convection in the subpolar gyre. Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the other natural signal which impacts the regional climate variability. It is concluded that mitigation and adaptation is very important issue not only for the anthropogenic global warming, but also for the natural climate variability

Ключевые слова: Climate change, Coupled ocean-atmosphere system, regional climate variability