Empirical Evaluation of Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency. Impact of Time Frame and Technical Indicators on Trading Profit of selected Currency Pairs

      Аннотация: The global market for foreign exchange is larger in turnover than any other market, including global equities and typically extremely liquid has changed dramatically over the past several years. Although both fundamental and technical analysis have the same goal of predicting a price or movement in FOREX market, they differ greatly. While technical analyst studies the effect, the fundamentalist studies the cause of market movement. Many successful traders combine both approaches for superior results. Considering the above mentioned facts, the present study is undertaken, with the aim of enhancing the existing knowledge base in the field of FOREX market technical analysis. The present study is undertaken to empirically evaluate the efficiency of foreign exchange market in respect of nine currency pairs, viz., EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURGBP, EURJPY, AUDUSD and NZDUSD as well as the importance of currency pairs, time frames and technical indicators in making regular returns and also making return after adjusting for risk associated with trading. It is concluded that there is non-randomness in the daily exchange rate return series of all nine selected currency pairs.

Ключевые слова: ADF, Autocorrelation, Random walk Models, Currency pairs, Trading Profit, Forex Market efficiency