Modelling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Using Bias-Corrected.

      Аннотация: Hourly rainfall data were extracted for control period (1971-2000) and future A1B scenario (2036-2065). Climate model bias corrected using quantile mapping method. The method works through matching cumulative density function of observed and climate model data. Mean monthly rainfall has increased in future scenario. Extreme rainfall has also projected to increase. Dry days increase in summer and a decrease in winter season are projected for future scenario. Precipitations were forced into a hydrological model to simulate discharge to examining the impact of bias-correction. Discharge fits well in summer season, and slightly over estimate high flows and under estimate low flows in winter season. Control scenario analyses are reasonable to examine future change in flow regime. An increase in high flow and a decrease in low flow during winter and summer half are projected for future scenario, respectively. Both peak discharge and groundwater is projected to increase. Reduction of low flow in summer season and increment of peak flow in winter season are considered as a signal of climate change impacts that increase drought propagations and flood incidences in the future.

Ключевые слова: Climate change, hydrology, modelling, Bias-Correction