Uncertainty in Tourism. GARCH Modeling in Tourist Arrivals of Nepal

      Аннотация: Tourism involves an education about sharing among different kinds of people, as well as understanding those aspects of history, culture, and nature that connect not only people living close to each other but also those coming from far away. It is an activity generating a number of economic and social benefits for the country, including foreign exchange earnings and directly and indirectly creating employment. Tourism is also the subject of great media attention, and the media in turn promotes tourism. Tourism embraces most of the aspects of our society. Subjects such as statistics and mathematics help us understand more about the developmental trends, forecasting, measures of volatility, uncertainty, growth and impact on economy and employment. Every country needs strategies, plans, and policies that can harness the full potential of tourism and minimize the uncertainty and volatility of tourist visits. The use of GARCH models, analysis, and forecasts in this book can be useful for tourism professionals, scholars, planners, and ultimately readers who have an interest on the uncertainty of tourism. Readers can also learn about Nepal, Mount Everest, Lumbini and more.

Ключевые слова: Authenticity, Economic impacts, fluctuations, Growth, planning, risk, Tourism, Uncertainty, Volatility, forecast.