Is Solar PV a grid-parity game?. Grid-parity Analysis of Solar PV markets in Europe

      Аннотация: This study examined the Grid-parity predictability and feasibility in the EU PV-Industry over the period 2009-2020, and in the German and Italian utility-scale and residential sub-markets over the period 2008-2020. The investigation answers the research questions of Grid-parity time-reaching in the above-mentioned contexts through a quantitative analysis while using the following economic variables: Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOEs) and electricity prices. Statistical methods and estimation techniques were applied to the above-mentioned LCOEs and electricity prices data sourced from Bloomberg and Eurostat. The explanatory power of external factors influencing Grid-parity time-reaching was excluded from this study, but a brief overview on them was provided for a proper results interpretation. The findings from the analysis revealed a utility-scale Grid-parity long-term feasible, esti-mated to occur around 2020 in the EU PV-Industry and post-2020 in both the nationalities analysed. However, outcomes are also affected by external considerations whose fulfilment, especially in utility-scale contexts, is crucial for a real, not just economic, PV Grid-parity.

Ключевые слова: Economic Analysis, externalities, Solar energy, Grid-parity, EU PV markets, wholesale and retail electricity prices