Identification of a Dynamic Linear Model for the American GDP. Specification of a Forecasting Method

      Аннотация: The purpose of this work is to identify a dynamic linear model which allows to make predictions about the future trend of the GDP of the United States. For this purpose, a general overview of the Bayesian approach to statistical analysis will also be presented, together with a description of the mathematical structure of the dynamic linear model and of the methods which need to be used in order to arrive to a correct model specification.

Ключевые слова: Bayesian inference, dynamic linear model, American GDP, econometrics