Bayesian Nonparametric Models for Multi-stage Sample Surveys. Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Models

      Аннотация: It is a standard practice in small area estimation (SAE) to use a model-based approach to borrow information from neighboring areas or from areas with similar characteristics. However, survey data tend to have gaps, ties and outliers, and parametric models may be problematic because statistical inference is sensitive to parametric assumptions. We propose nonparametric hierarchical Bayesian models for multi-stage ?nite population sampling to robustify the inference and allow for heterogeneity, outliers, skewness, etc. Bayesian predictive inference for SAE is studied by embedding a parametric model in a nonparametric model. The Dirichlet process (DP) has attractive properties such as clustering that permits borrowing information. We exemplify by considering in detail two-stage and three-stage hierarchical Bayesian models with DPs at various stages. The computational di?culties of the predictive inference when the population size is much larger than the sample size can be overcome by the stick-breaking algorithm and approximate methods. Moreover, the model comparison is conducted by computing log pseudo marginal likelihood and Bayes factors.

Ключевые слова: Bayes factor, Dirichlet Process, robustness, Sample survey, Small area estimation, nonparametric procedure, posterior propriety