Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability of Rural Households to Climate.

      Аннотация: Rural communities in Niger entirely rely on natural resources and have no other option but to smoothing their livelihoods against climate change related knock-on effects. In the context of unpredictable environmental pattern, these communities are subject to increasingly greater adverse climate exposure and sensitivity. These communities have a lower adaptive capacity, hence, falling into permanent vulnerability (minimum food consumption in terms of calories below which a person is considered poor is to say vulnerable). In order to support policy implication and rural development efforts, the objective of this paper aims at analyzing the vulnerability of rural households to climate stress. Following Chaudhuri et al. 2002, logistic regression is used to estimate the probability that household income lies below the poverty threshold. The regression result shows that there is a positive correlation between climate stress variables (early cessation of rainfall, flood, and drought) and vulnerability to poverty. On the other hand, following Temesgen Deressa, Rashid M. Hassan and Claudia Ringler (2008), vulnerability resilience indicator is used to compute vulnerability as the net effect

Ключевые слова: Logistic Regression, vulnerability resilience indicator, integrated assessment, principal components analysis, climate change/stress, adaptive capacity, sensitivity, exposure