Consumption of households with ARIMA approach until 2020. Analysis and forecast of consumption models of habitants in the Bulgarian villages

      Аннотация: The brochure includes some theoretical and methodological principles of research consumption and the basic characteristics of ARIMA models. It involves the results from the ex-post and ex-ante analysis of custom model in rural areas in Bulgaria respectively before 2012 and until 2020.Special attention is paid to the consumption level change of the main food products and beverages of the rural households in the period 2000-2012 and the expected changes of this level up to 2020. The study of cunsom model is directly relevant to improving the life quality in rural areas. The methods on structural dynamic analysis, comparative analysis and forecasting approach on ARIMA modeling are attached. Forecast of the user pattern on rural households was developed on time series covering the period 2000-2012. The conclusions about the expected changes of the custom model in rural areas are made. The main conclusion of the study is the standard of living on rural households will remain low by 2020. A significant change in the overall pattern of consumer behavior on the rural residents is not expected.

Ключевые слова: evaluation, forecast, rural households, Cunsomption function, ARIMA-models