Safety Based Decision Support Systems for Marine Structures. LNG Bunkering Case Study

      Аннотация: "Risk is a construct, before risk there was fate" (Bernstein, 1996). In this study, Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) used to define LNG bunkering operation risks. FTA results used for grouping control criteria under control clusters to form a network structure showing inner and outer dependencies. This network model formed the main structure of the study. Questionnaires created and multi-decision makers from industry who previously participated in HAZID/HAZOP studies for LNG systems, are asked to make input. Based on their past experience and backgrounds a sub-network created to define the weight of each decision maker. Aggregation of Individual Priorities method used to combine the decisions of each decision makers. Three different methods used to solve the same network structure; Logarithmic Least Square Method by code created in excel, Eigen Vector Method by using Super Decisions Software and Fuzzy-ANP using Chang's Method. Nowadays using LNG is getting more and more common in maritime industry. This new LNG era comes with new challenges and new risks. This is a multi-decision maker risk assessment study based on risks of LNG bunkering operation on ships.

Ключевые слова: ANP, Decision, LNG, Marine, Multi criteria, risk, risk assessment, fuzzy-anp, lng bunkering, Fault Tree Analysis, Fuzzy, chang's method