Macroeconomics of Adjustment and Growth. Economic Effects of Human Development, Openness and Public Policies

      Аннотация: This monograph is a collection of 3 interconnected working papers on the macroeconomics of adjustment and growth. Chapter 1 provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. Chapter 2 answers the question of whether monetary policy matters for long-run growth. It argues that the levels and the growth rates of potential output and real GDP change in economically sensible ways when monetary policy changes. To demonstrate this, I modify and extend the modern macroeconomic model of economic fluctuations presented by Hall and Taylor (1997) and link it formally to the Solow (1956)-Swan (1956) growth model. Chapter 3 is concerned with optimal savings and external debt management policies consistent with maximum social welfare. Raising fiscal savings and implementing strong incentives for private savings are needed to maximize growth and welfare. Excessive reliance on foreign borrowing should be avoided, especially against the backdrop of high real interest rates and risk spreads.

Ключевые слова: adjustment, Growth, Macrofinancial Policies