The Portuguese Energy System. A scenario analysis

      Аннотация: This work's purpose is to design and evaluate a scenario for the evolution of the Portuguese Energy System until the year 2030, taking into account the security of energy supply while contributing to reduce the CO2 emissions. The research started with a review of the bibliography on the subject and the characterization of the base year in which the scenarios are supported. This characterization was based in Portugal’s energy balance and provided the data to the modeling of the energy system. The tool used to model the energy system was the software LEAP in which the different Portuguese business sectors were characterized for 2010, the base year, creating an energy model that is representative of the country's energy system. Two scenarios for the evolution of energy supply were defined: one that represents the expected trends for the projection period, based on the best estimative at the moment, considering national energy policies and European legislative framework, incentive systems and technology development; and another that tries to create a sustainable system including options to reduce energy-related emissions.

Ключевые слова: energy system, Portugal, Scenarios