Analysis of Traffic Revenue Risk for PPP Highway Projects in India. Factors Affecting Profitability of PPP Highway Projects & Emerging Trends in the Indian Toll Road Sector

      Аннотация: The traffic revenue risk, may adversely affect the project cash flows leading to inadequate funds to cover the operational costs, service the debt and deliver expected returns to the investors. Attributes which affect the financial profitability of PPP highway infrastructure projects in India have been identified and their relative importance has been gauged, using a questionnaire survey. A total of 93 responses are received and the respondents comprises of professionals from concessionaire, consultant and owner organizations. Factor analysis of the collected responses has extracted six key factors responsible to influence financial profitability of these projects namely, financial constraints; error in cost estimations; revenue concession forms; litigious attitude of parties; revenue sharing mechanism; and diligence in traffic study conducted for the project. Emerging trends in the Indian Toll Road Sector and possible sources of ancillary revenues in the Indian context have also been identified through expert interviews and case study data collection.

Ключевые слова: Profitability, Risk Management, Factor analysis, PPP, Discriminant Analysis, Traffic Revenue Risk, Highway infrastructure, Revenue Forecasts