Modeling and Applying of DSARIMA to Electricity Load Forecasting. Case Study of Customers' Electrical Load Demand in Gresik City, Indonesia

      Аннотация: Modeling and forecasting the use of electric power in the load center is very important. The main goal is that the operation of the power plant system works optimally. This book will discuss the dynamics of electric power at the load center. Case study was conducted at the Generating Unit, State Electricity Company, Gresik city, Indonesia. the data used ranges from January 2009 to November 2011. Furthermore, data testing is performed, between the actual data and the predicted results. Comparison of this data obtained by MAPE of 1.56 percent.The recommendations from the research in this book can then be developed for different case studies. And can also be used as a reference for the design of controls in the power generation system as the author has done.

Ключевые слова: electrical load, Time Series, Forecasting, Modeling