Modeling and Predicting Criminal Behaviour. World and Ukrainian Experience

      Аннотация: The author describes his own vision of the problems of criminological modeling and prediction of criminal behavior. In particular, the research evaluation of criminological modeling as a method of cognition in scientific research is provided. The doctrine of criminal behavior and the factors that cause it are thoroughly considered. We propose our own methods for determining the likelihood of relapse, identifying trends in latency, criminal activity in the regions using logic and mathematical methods. The identity of the offender was investigated using data reduction techniques. We have described the theoretical foundations of criminological crime prediction and individual prediction of criminal behavior using discriminant analysis and neural network methods. The basic directions of application of the results of criminological modeling and prediction of criminal behavior in the practice of crime prevention are analyzed.

Ключевые слова: criminal behavior, criminological modeling, criminological prediction, logic and mathematical methods, Discriminant Analysis, neural networks, determination of recurrence probability, determination of latency trends, Data Reduction, individual prediction of criminal behavior, crime prevention