The Effect of the Ebola Virus Disease on intra-regional trade in West Africa. Ebola Virus Disease

      Аннотация: The West African sub-region experienced the World’s largest Ebola outbreak after its maiden outbreak in Central Africa. In this background, economic activities were heavily affected hence intra-regional trade shares of affected countries. Given this, the study seeks to investigate the effect of the Ebola Virus on affected countries’ shares to intra-regional trade. Additionally, the study seeks to investigate the impact of ECOWAS membership on trade in West Africa. The Poison Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) was used to estimate the augmented gravity model of international trade. The results showed that the Ebola Virus Disease reduced the share of affected countries’ trade to intra-regional partners by two folds. Also, the study showed that ECOWAS membership doubles the level of trade. The study concludes that the ECOWAS should be proactive in their response to disease outbreak by investing in research. Additionally, the study shows that Mauritania will benefit from opting for the ECOWAS.

Ключевые слова: Ebola Virus Disease, Poison Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), ECOWAS, gravity model of international trade.