Time Domain Models in the Analysis of Aggregated Crime Rate in Nigeria. A Comparative Study

      Аннотация: The well being of any citizen of a country is the paramount responsibility of government of the day. Throughout the World, the issue of security of life and properties of the people cannot be toyed with because, trauma of the Crime scene, witnessed and/or experienced by the victims and the nation as a whole lead to both physical and psychological effect. Unfortunately, as very many Nigerian are not criminally inclined, very strong and enduring set of people, they were frustrated by economic hardship and hunger through massive unemployment and non provision of social amenities which led some to survival of the fittest by engaging in crime. Therefore, The chosen SARIMA model however outclassed the ARIMA model due to its overall lower values of model selection criteria used and its better forecasting accuracy. The expectation of a downward trend in crime rate in Nigeria from the forecast will manifest if only the recommendation can be strictly abide with,

Ключевые слова: ARIMA, Sarima, crime, Differencing, Stationarity