Stochastic Analysis of Maize Production of Betul District in MP. Fitting Statistical Model to Some Agricultural Dynamic Variables Maize Production and Productivity in Betul District

      Аннотация: The thesis contains five chapters besides a list of bibliography at the end. The chapter I is introductory, which is explain the importance of the maize production in Betul District, Madhya Pradesh State India, and world as a whole. Chapter II deals with the literature related to study, which is used for discussion, and taking the decision and also related the growth rate Betul and Madhya Pradesh. Chapter III information regarding five time series factors has been taken and a function relation Xit = α βt ɛit has been established and compound growth rate has been workout for the first objective of the study. For the second objective path coefficient analysis has been carried out and direct and indirect effect have been obtained. For the third objective five types of time series stochastic models have been fitted and best fitted model has been screened which are compound, quadratic and power model for maize production and productivity. Chapter IV deals with findings including discussions. It reveal that from the fitted five times series factors the maximum growth has been observed in fertilizer distribution. For forecasting the most suitable model is compound, quadratic and power.

Ключевые слова: Maize, Correlation Coefficient, Compound Growth Rate, stochastic models, r square, adjusted r square